Featured Article
The Financial Realities of Elder Care & Long-Term Care Insurance
Please join us for the MMBB Member Luncheon & Address at the Biennial Mission Summit of American Baptist Churches USA on June 23, 2023, from noon to 2 p.m. at the Puerto Rico Convention Center in San Juan, Puerto Rico. To learn more about the luncheon and our workshops, visit www.americanbaptists2023.com.
A late rally at the end of the month helped push stocks higher in November, marking the second monthly advance in a row. Each of the benchmark indexes posted solid monthly gains, led by the Global Dow, which advanced nearly 11.0%. The large caps of the S&P 500 and the Dow rose more than 5.0%. The Nasdaq climbed 4.4%, while the Russell 2000 added 2.2%.
Investors welcomed news from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who announced that the pace of interest-rate hikes can slow as soon as December, which likely means a 50-basis point increase, ending the string of 75-basis point rate hikes. The Fed may be taking note of the fact that the labor market has begun to cool (see the employment report below), while consumer price increases are showing signs of moderation. Nevertheless, prices remain elevated entering the holiday shopping season. However, business conditions remained generally positive, and consumers continued to spend, despite rising interest rates and decreasing levels of confidence (see report below).
Despite the relative good news from the Federal Reserve, Wall Street faced the ramifications of political unrest in China over that nation's COVID-related restrictions. The issues in China are likely to have a negative impact on the global economy, particularly the U.S. economy, as China is a main source of the global supply-chain system, which is still trying to recover from the pandemic.
A drop in U.S. crude supplies boosted crude oil prices at the end of November. Nevertheless, prices ended the month lower for the fifth loss in the last six months. China's COVID restrictions impacted the demand for crude oil, helping to keep prices muted. Prices at the pump declined in November. The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $3.534 per gallon on November 28, down from $3.742 on October 31 but $0.154 higher than a year ago.
Bond prices rose in November, pulling yields lower. Ten-year Treasury yields fell 37 basis points. The Treasury yield curve, often seen as a warning sign of an impending recession, recorded its steepest inversion in over 40 years as the 10-year Treasury yield dropped 0.78 percentage point below the two-year yield. The dollar slid lower against a basket of world currencies. Gold prices rose 9.0% in November, ending a streak of seven consecutive monthly declines.
MARKET/INDEX | 2021 CLOSE | PRIOR MONTH | AS OF 11/30 | MONTHLY CHANGE | YTD CHANGE |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
DJIA | 36,338.30 | 32,732.95 | 34,589.77 | 5.67% | -4.81% |
NASDAQ | 15,644.97 | 10,988.15 | 11,468.00 | 4.37% | -26.70% |
S&P 500 | 4,766.18 | 3,871.98 | 4,080.11 | 5.38% | -14.39% |
RUSSELL 2000 | 2,245.31 | 1,846.86 | 1,886.58 | 2.15% | -15.98% |
GLOBAL DOW | 4,137.63 | 3,432.62 | 3,782.87 | 10.20% | -8.57% |
FED. FUNDS | 0.00%-0.25% | 3.00%-3.25% | 3.75%-4.00% | 75 bps | 375 bps |
10-YEAR TREASURIES | 1.51% | 4.07% | 3.70% | -37 bps | 219 bps |
US DOLLAR-DXY | 95.64 | 111.58 | 106.03 | -4.97% | 10.86% |
CRUDE OIL-CL=F | $75.44 | $86.10 | $80.41 | -6.61% | 6.59% |
GOLD-GC=F | $1,830.30 | $1,635.70 | $1,783.00 | 9.01% | -2.58% |
Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.
Eye on the Month Ahead
Rising inflation, and the government's response to it, continued to influence the market in November. The Federal Open Market Committee increased the federal funds rate by 75 basis points in November for the fourth time this year. However, indications are that the Committee may scale back interest-rate hikes beginning in December. Oversupply and waning demand drove crude oil prices lower in November. Nevertheless, prices are expected to rise again in December as the cold weather should increase demand. As to the stock market, December is usually a good month for equities, which should make for a solid fourth quarter.
Data sources: Economic: Based on data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (unemployment, inflation); U.S. Department of Commerce (GDP, corporate profits, retail sales, housing); S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index (home prices); Institute for Supply Management (manufacturing/services). Performance: Based on data reported in WSJ Market Data Center (indexes); U.S. Treasury (Treasury yields); U.S. Energy Information Administration/Bloomberg.com Market Data (oil spot price, WTI, Cushing, OK); www.goldprice.org (spot gold/silver); Oanda/FX Street (currency exchange rates). News items are based on reports from multiple commonly available international news sources (i.e., wire services) and are independently verified when necessary with secondary sources such as government agencies, corporate press releases, or trade organizations. All information is based on sources deemed reliable, but no warranty or guarantee is made as to its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any securities, and should not be relied on as financial advice. Forecasts are based on current conditions, subject to change, and may not come to pass. U.S. Treasury securities are guaranteed by the federal government as to the timely payment of principal and interest. The principal value of Treasury securities and other bonds fluctuates with market conditions. Bonds are subject to inflation, interest-rate, and credit risks. As interest rates rise, bond prices typically fall. A bond sold or redeemed prior to maturity may be subject to loss. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal, and there can be no guarantee that any investing strategy will be successful.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index composed of 30 widely traded blue-chip U.S. common stocks. The S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 largest, publicly traded companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The Russell 2000 is a market-cap weighted index composed of 2,000 U.S. small-cap common stocks. The Global Dow is an equally weighted index of 150 widely traded blue-chip common stocks worldwide. The U.S. Dollar Index is a geometrically weighted index of the value of the U.S. dollar relative to six foreign currencies. Market indexes listed are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment.
IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES
Broadridge Investor Communication Solutions, Inc. does not provide investment, tax, legal, or retirement advice or recommendations. The information presented here is not specific to any individual’s personal circumstances.
To the extent that this material concerns tax matters, it is not intended or written to be used, and cannot be used, by a taxpayer for the purpose of avoiding penalties that may be imposed by law. Each taxpayer should seek independent advice from a tax professional based on his or her individual circumstances.
These materials are provided for general information and educational purposes based upon publicly available information from sources believed to be reliable — we cannot assure the accuracy or completeness of these materials. The information in these materials may change at any time and without notice.
MMBB is not registered as an investment adviser with either the United States Securities and Exchange Commission or any state securities regulator. MMBB does not receive compensation with respect to non-MMBB plan assets from any party for any advice given, referral made or transaction ultimately undertaken on account thereof. Neither MMBB, any affiliate thereof, nor MMBB's [plans] are subject to registration, regulation, or reporting under the Securities Act of 1933, the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the Investment Company Act of 1940, the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 or state securities laws, and, therefore, plan participants and their beneficiaries and other persons receiving investment advice from MMBB will not be afforded the protections thereof. All persons should consider carefully the risks attendant to any investment as the value of such investments, and the income, if any, derived therefrom, may increase or decrease and may result in a loss of principal invested. The past performance of any investment or financial product is not a guarantee of future performance. You should consult with your own accountant or tax adviser as to the tax ramifications of entering into, holding or exiting any investment. MMBB is not offering or soliciting any transaction in any security nor is any information or advice intended for distribution to any person in any jurisdiction where doing so would result in contravention of any applicable laws, rules or regulations.
Thank you for joining the MMBB mailing list. You will begin to receive information soon.
Translations of any materials into languages other than English are intended solely as a convenience to the non-English-reading public. We have attempted to provide an accurate translation of the original material in English, but due to the nuances in translating to a foreign language, slight differences may exist.
Las traducciones de cualquier material a idiomas que no sean el inglés son para la conveniencia de aquellos que no leen inglés. Hemos intentado proporcionar una traducción precisa del material original en inglés, pero debido a las diferencias de la traducción a un idioma extranjero, pueden existir ligeras diferencias.
MMBB Financial Services is pleased to unveil our new website experience.
Watch a guided tutorial of our enhanced site to introduce you to important new features designed to help you live your life with financial confidence.
You will be linking to another website not owned or operated by MMBB. MMBB is not responsible for the availability or content of this website and does not represent either the linked website or you, should you enter into a transaction. The inclusion of any hyperlink does not imply any endorsement, investigation, verification or monitoring by MMBB of any information in any hyperlinked site. We encourage you to review their privacy and security policies which may differ from MMBB.
If you “Proceed”, the link will open in a new window.