July kicked off the third quarter with a bang as stocks surged throughout much of the month. Investors were encouraged by solid employment growth, a rise in personal income and consumer spending, a surge in the housing sector, and an increase in industrial production. All news was not positive, however. The second-quarter gross domestic product fell more than 31% and many states saw an increase in the number of reported COVID-19 cases. Nevertheless, investors stayed with equities, pushing values higher for the fourth consecutive month. Tech stocks drove the Nasdaq to a 6.8% gain, followed by the S&P 500 (5.5%), the Global Dow (3.5%), the small caps of the Russell 2000 (2.7%), and the Dow (2.4%). Treasury bond prices climbed, sending yields lower in July. Crude oil prices settled at $40.40 per barrel, nearly $1.00 ahead of their June closing values. Gold prices closed July at $1,990.00, about 11% higher than June’s closing price.
The positive run for stocks continued in August, as each of the benchmark indexes listed here advanced notably. The Nasdaq climbed nearly 9.6%, the Dow rose 7.6%, the S&P 500 advanced 7.0%, the Global Dow vaulted 6.0%, and the Russell 2000 gained 5.5%. Crude oil and gas prices rose marginally, while the price of gold fell. Throughout the month, states struggled to settle on appropriate protocols for reopening schools. Testing for the virus increased, and the number of reported COVID-19 cases and deaths rose.
September saw stocks fall on waning hopes of a second round of stimulus. Also, discord between the United States and China ramped up following President Trump’s threatened recourse against American companies that create jobs overseas or that do business with China. Technology shares took a sizable hit, particularly early in the month. September saw several days of favorable returns, likely due to bargain hunters. Unfortunately, there wasn’t enough buyers to prevent the benchmark indexes from falling lower by the end of each week of the month. September saw each of the indexes fall, led by the Nasdaq (-5.2%), followed by the Global Dow (-4.3%), the S&P 500 (-3.92%), the Russell 2000 (-3.45%), and the Dow (-2.28%).
Overall, the third quarter of 2020 produced the second consecutive quarter of notable market gains. Of the benchmark indexes listed here, the Nasdaq again proved the strongest, climbing more than 11.0% for the quarter, followed by the large caps of the S&P 500 and the Dow, which gained 8.5% and 7.6%, respectively. The Global Dow advanced 5.0% for the quarter, and the small caps of the Russell 2000 ended the quarter up 4.6%.
Year to date, the Nasdaq remains well ahead of its 2019 year-end closing value, while the S&P 500 is more than 4.0% over last year’s closing mark. The remaining benchmarks continue to gain ground, with the closest to its year-end value being the Dow, followed by the Global Dow and the Russell 2000.
By the close of trading on September 30, the price of crude oil (CL=F) closed at $39.64 per barrel, below the August 31 price of $42.81 per barrel and slightly higher than the June 30 price of $39.35. The national average retail regular gasoline price was $2.169 per gallon on September 28, down from the August 31 price of $2.222 and lower than the June 28 selling price of $2.174. The price of gold finished September at $1,891.80 per ounce, lower than the August 31 price of $1,940.60 per ounce but higher than its June 30 closing value of $1,798.80 per ounce.
|Market/Index||2019 Close||As of September 30||Monthly Change||Quarterly Change||YTD Change|
|Fed. Funds||1.50%-1.75%||0.00%-0.25%||0 bps||0 bps||-150 bps|
|10-year Treasuries||1.91%||0.67%||-2 bps||1 bps||-124 bps|
Equities data reflect price changes, not total return.
The economy is expected to continue its slow, upward trend in October. The market took a hit in September but showed signs of recovering toward the end of the month. Certainly, the run for the presidency will garner increasing attention and influence the economy in general and the stock market in particular.
Data sources: Economic: Based on data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (unemployment, inflation); U.S. Department of Commerce (GDP, corporate profits, retail sales, housing); S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index (home prices); Institute for Supply Management (manufacturing/services). Performance: Based on data reported in WSJ Market Data Center (indexes); U.S. Treasury (Treasury yields); U.S. Energy Information Administration/Bloomberg.com Market Data (oil spot price, WTI, Cushing, OK); http://www.goldprice.org (spot gold/silver); Oanda/FX Street (currency exchange rates). News items are based on reports from multiple commonly available international news sources (i.e., wire services) and are independently verified when necessary with secondary sources such as government agencies, corporate press releases, or trade organizations. All information is based on sources deemed reliable, but no warranty or guarantee is made as to its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any securities, and should not be relied on as financial advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal, and there can be no guarantee that any investing strategy will be successful.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index composed of 30 widely traded blue-chip U.S. common stocks. The S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 largest, publicly traded companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The Russell 2000 is a market-cap weighted index composed of 2,000 U.S. small-cap common stocks. The Global Dow is an equally weighted index of 150 widely traded blue-chip common stocks worldwide. The U.S. Dollar Index is a geometrically weighted index of the value of the U.S. dollar relative to six foreign currencies. Market indices listed are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment.
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